Election Risk Index — methodology

The composite Election Risk Index distils six independent screening signals into a single 0–100 reading. This page documents exactly how each component is computed, how they are weighted, and what the number does not say.

What this page covers

  • The six underlying signals and how each is computed.
  • How signals are normalized to a common 0–100 scale before they are combined.
  • Weights, thresholds, and bands (Low / Moderate / High / Critical).
  • When the index misleads — small samples, demographic effects, lawful recount corrections.

See the Election Risk Analysis page for the index applied to the latest election.

Explore the data

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  • Indicators
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  • Opinion polls
  • Seat simulator
  • Parties
  • Results by region
  • Extraordinary local elections
  • Local-elections reconciliation
  • Sofia
  • About the project

Recent analysis

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